【NEW DELHI】 The euphoric rise seen in the Indian markets can be attributed to stable and reform- oriented government in the upcoming general elections results with Narendra Modi leading the bandwagon at the Centre of the things.
Amid hopes of pro-growth or a pro-reform government, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have pumped in Rs 9,600 crore in Indian stocks in April, the eighth consecutive month of inflows. The strong inflow in recent months has taken the net investment by FIIs to Rs 32,377 crore (USD 5.3 billion) in Indian equities so far this year.
"If we get a decisive verdict on 16th May, then there will be an uptick for sure and it will be a significant uptick till the end of this month; however, if NDA gets less than 230 seats, markets may crack by 5-10 per cent or may be more," said Sandip Sabharwal, Market Expert in an interview with ET Now.
If we look at opinion polls nobody has forecasted absolute or clear 272 seats (majority mark) to the NDA. More so, there are two variables within this one - the NDA should get more than 272 seats and the BJP as a major coalition partner should have around say 220 to 230 seats, they say.
○Betting on stock market based on opinion poll results? Here's why the bet may fail
【MUMBAI】The rally in the Indian markets which began in February has come to a still. After a lackluster month of April, in which the benchmarks hit all-time high levels, the Nifty has been consolidating with a negative bias.
As per the opinion polls, BJP-led NDA is expected to form the government at the centre. Hopes of a stable and reform- oriented government after the general elections have been driving the market to newer heights.
However, the opinion polls have been unreliable in the last two Lok Sabha elections. In 2004 elections, they predicted the NDA to win nearly 270 seats but the alliance managed to win only 189 seats. In 2009, the polls predicted NDA to win between 175-195 seats but they managed to win 159 seats only.
○Will Sensex hit upper circuit on May 16? May be not, say analysts
【NEW DELHI】In the run-up to the election results on May 16, the Sensex has managed to rally a little over 6 per cent in 2014 as the markets are pricing in the NDA government with Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister.
As the markets are marching towards the D-day, experts feel that even if a single party manages to get clear majority, the market is unlikely to get euphoric and hit its upper circuit limit on May 16 this year, which was the case witnessed in 2009.
○F&O Tracker: Volatility inches up as poll outcome nears
【Mumbai】The Nifty has been trading flat since the close of the April expiry. The lacklustre trade has seen Nifty OI reducing by 7% since the beginning of the May series.
On the other hand, BankNifty has been down 1% since expiry with an increase in OI (up 27%) indicating short build-up. Sector-wise, oil & gas and PSU banks have seen fresh long build-up in the market, while IT stocks have come under selling pressure on every upmove.
【News source】
NDA getting less than 220 seats a 'death knell' for stock market?
Betting on stock market based on opinion poll results? Here's why the bet may fail
Will Sensex hit upper circuit on May 16? May be not, say analysts
F&O Tracker: Volatility inches up as poll outcome nears
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